Modeled versus Measured Temperatures for the MSU era
The upper left panel is from the NASA GISS model E output of temperatures from 1979 through 2006. The trends include known forcings to 2003 and follow the A1B scenario forcings after 2003.
The upper right panel depicts observed temperatures since 1979 from the UAH MSU. The lower right panel depicts observed temperature change from the RSS MSU record since 1979. The lower left panel depicts temperature change in the radiosonce data (RATPAC) since 1979.
The observations corroborate the model in terms of the stratospheric cooling ( blue at the top of each panel ) and in terms of the Arctic warming ( red in the lower right of each panel ). The most prominent feature of the model is the tropical upper troposphere warming ( the big red spot in the middle which is projected by many other models ). This feature is absent from the observed records.
data at: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelE/transient/Rc_pj.4.03.html http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ratpac/ratpac-b
(Least squares fit used to determine linear trend for comparable shading)
Trend Since the start of 1979
Global Temperature Trends of various data sets since 1979 ( The MSU era )